Welcome to Probability Theory! For course info and policies, please see the syllabus. For grades, log into Moodle. If you need help, contact Prof. Wright.

**Prof. Wright's office hours in RMS 405:** Mon. 9:00–10:00, Tues. 9:30–10:30, Wed. 2:00–3:00, Thurs 1:00–2:00, Fri. 9:00–10:00, whenever the door is open, or by appointment

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Friday

September 6

September 6

Introduction

What is probability?

What is probability?

Do the following before next class:

- Complete the Syllabus Quiz.
- Read §1.1 and §1.2 (at least through page 10) and answer the questions on the Reading Guide (also on the back of your worksheet from class). Bring your completed Reading Guide with you to the next class.
- Begin Homework 1.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §1.3 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 1 (due Wednesday at 4pm in the homework mailbox).

Do the following before next class:

- Read this article by Carol Dweck and answer the questions on the Reading Guide. Also make a conjecture about the cookie problem on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 2 (due 4pm Monday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §1.4 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 2 (due 4pm Monday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read (or re-read) Section 1.4.3, then read §1.5. Answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 3 (due 4pm Friday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §1.6 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 3 (due 4pm Friday).
- If possible, bring a laptop with R and RStudio to class on Friday. You can download R here and download RStudio here.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.1 and §2.2, and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 4 (due 4pm Wednesday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.3 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 4 (due 4pm Wednesday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.4 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 5.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.5 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Work on Homework 5 (due 4pm Wednesday).

Do the following before next class:

- Finish Homework 5 (due 4pm Wednesday).
- There is no reading assignment for Wednesday, but this would be an excellent time to review §2.1–2.4.

Study for Exam 1.

**Extra credit opportunity**: Attend either of Dr. Eugenia Cheng's talks on Thursday October 3 (3:30pm in Tomson 280 or 7:00pm in Carleton Weitz Cinema) and answer these two questions on Moodle to earn two extra-credit homework points.

Friday

October 4

October 4

**Exam 1**

- This exam will cover Sections 1.1 through 1.5 and 2.1 through 2.3.
- Calculators will be permitted, but probably not very helpful, and certainly not necessary.
- Books, notes, and internet-capable devices will not be permitted during the exam.
- A review page, with suggested problems, is available here.

Do the following before next class:

- Take a look at Homework 6 (due 4pm next Friday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.6.1 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Work on Homework 6 (due 4pm Friday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.6.2 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 6 (due 4pm Friday).

*Fall break! No class Monday, October 14.*

Do the following before next class:

- Reading §2.7 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 7 (due 4pm Friday).

Do the following before next class:

- Re-read §2.7. This section should make more sense now than the first time you read it. There is no reading guide for Wednesday.
- Finish Homework 7 (due 4pm Friday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.8 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 8 (due 4pm Wednesday).
- If possible, bring a computer with R and RStudio to class on Monday.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.1 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 8 (due 4pm Wednesday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.2 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 9 (due 4pm Monday).

Friday

October 25

October 25

Expected values and moment generating functions of continuous distributions

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.3 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 9 (due 4pm Monday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.4.1 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 10.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.4.2 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 10.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.7 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 11.

Do the following before next class:

- Re-read §3.7, focusing on Examples 3.39–3.41.
- Work on Homework 11.

Do the following before next class:

- Finish Homework 11.
- Read the Exam 2 information. Review what you have learned about probability distributions in chapters 2 and 3 of the text.

Complete the take-home exam problems. Bring your solutions to the exam on Monday.

Monday

November 11

November 11

**Exam 2**

- This exam will cover Sections 2.1 through 2.7 and 3.1 through 3.4.
- Calculators will be permitted, but probably not very helpful, and certainly not necessary.
- Books, notes, and internet-capable devices will not be permitted during the in-class exam.
- Click here for more information and suggested review problems.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.1 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 12 (due 4pm Friday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.2 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 12 (due 4pm Friday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read from the beginning of §4.3 up to the §4.3.1 heading (pages 264–268 in the Second Edition of the text). Answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 13 (due 4pm Wednesday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.3.1 and §4.3.2. Answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 13 (due 4pm Wednesday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.4 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 14 (due 4pm Monday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.5.1 and §4.5.2. Answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 14 (due 4pm Monday).
- If possible, bring a computer with
**R**to class on Monday.

*Thanksgiving break! No class November 27 or 29.*

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.5.3 and §4.5.4. Answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 15.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.6 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Work on Homework 15.

Do the following before next class:

- Re-read §4.6. There is no new reading guide for Wednesday.
- Finish Homework 15.

Friday

December 6

December 6

Transformations of random variables

Bivariate transformation theorem

Bivariate transformation theorem

Homework 15

due today

due today

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.9 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 16.
- For extra practice on transformations of random variables, see the Transformations Practice Problems and Solutions.

Do the following before next class:

- Finish Homework 16.

Complete the take-home portion of the final exam.

Friday

December 13

December 13

**Final Exam, 9–11am**

- This exam will be cumulative, with emphasis on Chapter 4.
- The exam will consist of an in-class portion and a short take-home portion.
- The take-home portion will be distributed on December 11 and due at the final exam time on December 13. For this portion of the exam you may use your textbook, your notes, the course web site, a calculator,
*R*,*Mathematica*, and*Wolfram Alpha*, but not other people, web sites, books, etc. Remember the honor code! - For the in-class portion: books, notes, and internet-capable devices will not be permitted. Calculators will be permitted, but probably not very helpful, and certainly not necessary.
- Click here for more information and suggested review problems.
**More review problems:**transformations of random variables (solutions)- Lastly, make sure you are familiar with the St. Olaf final exam policies.